Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, Amsterdam's highest temperature will be recorded at Schiphol Airport weather station and resolved against specific temperature bands. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across the crowd, suggesting either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies in historical weather data.

Amsterdam's August temperatures typically range between 17–23°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 28°C. Historical records show only occasional days above 25°C during mid-August, making the distribution of outcomes heavily weighted towards moderate temperatures. The 0% crowd probability indicates traders are either concentrated in a single band or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful cross-platform comparison with sportsbook weather derivatives or analyst consensus forecasts.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern developments in early August 2026, particularly Atlantic high-pressure systems that occasionally drive continental heat into the Low Countries. The KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) issues seasonal outlooks and medium-range forecasts that typically become reliable 10–14 days before the settlement date. Any significant heat wave warnings for Western Europe in mid-August would shift market expectations materially. The specific reliance on Schiphol's automated station readings—rather than city-centre observations—matters for resolution, as airport locations can record different extremes than urban areas.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.