Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question concerns the peak temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 14 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary forecasts. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for morning readings that may not yet reflect the day's full thermal range.

August temperatures in Amsterdam typically peak between 20–25°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 30°C even during heat waves. Historical data from Schiphol shows that the station has recorded temperatures above 30°C on only a handful of August days in the past two decades, most notably during the 2003 European heat wave and isolated events in 2006 and 2015. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market is pricing in either an expectation of moderate conditions or reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting specific temperature thresholds nearly two years ahead. Cross-platform comparison reveals minimal activity on equivalent contracts at other venues, indicating limited consensus beyond the implied baseline.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models released by KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) as summer 2026 approaches, alongside broader European weather pattern indices that influence North Sea maritime conditions affecting Dutch temperatures. The specificity of the Daily Observations resolution source—rather than rounded summary figures—introduces measurement precision as a material factor; traders familiar with Schiphol's historical data variance will note that station readings can diverge by 0.5–1.0°C depending on sensor calibration and time-of-reading protocols. No scheduled infrastructure changes at the airport are anticipated that would alter measurement methodology before the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.