Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Platform comparison

Market context

A preliminary memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, signed electronically by President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian, has already halted military operations and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, yet the final binding agreement remains pending a 60-day negotiation window [1][5]. This market asks whether Trump will personally sign that definitive written agreement before July 31, 2026, with current crowd-implied probability at just 3% YES, suggesting traders doubt the listed individual will complete the formalisation despite the initial deal’s existence [1].

Historically, similar high-stakes diplomatic frameworks—such as the 2015 Iran nuclear accord—required multiple rounds of verification and final signatures by heads of state, often delayed by shifting political conditions or domestic opposition [4]. The current 3% probability aligns with analyst consensus that while the memorandum is signed, the final deal’s ratification via a UN Security Council resolution and the physical signing by Trump may face procedural hurdles or be deferred beyond the settlement window [3][6]. Unlike sportsbook lines on political events that often overreact to headlines, prediction markets here reflect the structural uncertainty of converting a preliminary accord into a binding treaty signed by the listed individual in an official capacity [1].

Traders should monitor the scheduled ceremonial signing by Vice President JD Vance in Geneva on Friday, the release of the full deal text by Trump, and any announcements regarding the 60-day negotiation timeline for nuclear constraints and sanctions relief [2][6]. Recent reports confirm the deal’s electronic execution and the planned in-person signing by delegations, but the final agreement’s endorsement requires a binding UN resolution, which could extend negotiations beyond July 31 if disputes over uranium enrichment or proxy networks persist [2][4]. The key catalyst is whether Trump explicitly signs the final document before the deadline, as the memorandum alone does not satisfy the market’s resolution criteria for a written agreement signed by the listed individual [1][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.