Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to national bank open: donna vekic vs viktorija golubic. This market refers to the tennis match between Donna Vekic and Viktorija Golubic in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Donna V…
Methodology
We track National Bank Open: Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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