Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
54% | 46% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
54% | 46% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 54% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Match O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Match O/U 22.5 | 48% |
| Completed Match | 47% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Match O/U 23.5 | 38% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 1 Winner | 31% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set 2 Winner | 29% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova | 22% |
| US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 12% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 54% probability to us open wta: lanlana tararudee vs linda noskova. This market refers to the tennis match between Lanlana Tararudee and Linda Noskova in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lanlana T…
Methodology
We track US Open WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Linda Noskova across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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