Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska | 97% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Set 1 Winner | 95% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 89% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Set 2 Winner | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Game Spread +/-8.5 | 45% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 38% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 11% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 97% YES probability for US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska. This market refers to the tennis match between Iga Swiatek and Nadia Podoroska in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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