Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 76% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils | 74% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 2 Winner | 67% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 1 Winner | 65% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Match O/U 21.5 | 57% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 47% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Match O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 16% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 76% probability to national bank open: learner tien vs gael monfils. This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Gael Monfils in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tie…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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