Granby: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Dylan Friend

Platform comparison

Market context

Yuta Shimizu faces Jay Dylan Friend in a Granby tournament match originally scheduled for 13 July 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. The settlement window closes 20 July 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling before the market resolves to a 50-50 split. The current 100% implied probability on the YES side (Shimizu advancing) reflects either extremely limited liquidity, a data error, or a situation where one player has withdrawn or the match has been formally cancelled. Cross-platform comparison is essential here: sportsbooks typically price such contests with meaningful spreads unless one competitor is unavailable. Any divergence between prediction markets showing certainty and traditional betting lines showing odds suggests checking tournament draw confirmations and player status updates.

Shimizu's recent form and head-to-head record against Friend will determine whether the market's extreme confidence is justified or represents mispricing. Players competing in Granby-level tournaments often have limited ATP or ITF ranking points at stake, making upsets more common than in Grand Slam contexts. Traders should monitor the ATP and ITF official draws, player injury reports, and any withdrawal announcements through the tournament's official channels. The seven-day delay clause is critical: if either player withdraws after the match is scheduled but before play begins, or if weather or facility issues postpone the match beyond 20 July without completion, the market settles 50-50 regardless of the scoreline at that point.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.