Croatia Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti

Platform comparison

Market context

The Croatia Open, held annually on the Dalmatian coast, features a qualifying draw and main draw across multiple rounds. Kyrian Jacquet, a French left-hander ranked outside the top 200, and Marco Trungelliti, an Argentine journeyman with ATP experience, are scheduled to meet in what appears to be an early-round fixture on 13 July 2026. The 0% implied probability on this contract suggests either minimal trading activity or a technical listing issue, as even heavily favoured players rarely trade at absolute certainty in tennis prediction markets.

Comparable lower-ranked ATP qualifying matchups typically settle with the higher-ranked player priced between 55–70% across major sportsbooks, depending on recent form and surface aptitude. Trungelliti's career record includes multiple ATP main-draw appearances and a ranking peak near 150; Jacquet remains less established. The absence of meaningful divergence between sportsbook lines and prediction-market odds would be unusual if this contract were actively traded, suggesting the market may lack sufficient liquidity or clarity on both players' participation status.

Traders should monitor official Croatia Open draw confirmations and any late withdrawals through the ATP's injury-report channels. Surface conditions on clay, where both players have limited recent data, will influence match dynamics. The settlement window closes 20 July 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date; delays beyond that trigger a 50-50 resolution. Confirmation of both players' acceptance into the draw and absence of injury announcements remain the primary catalysts affecting pricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.