Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas

Platform comparison

Market context

Andre Ilagan’s match with Edas Butvilas in Lexington is already live on several score trackers, but the prediction market still shows **0% YES**, which is a clear divergence from the match being treated as an active sporting event by the wider tennis data ecosystem.[1][7] That 0% print is not a conventional win probability signal so much as a market artefact, and it sits awkwardly beside external pre-match or live-style ratings that have still leaned towards Butvilas in pricing and model output, including Tennis Tonic’s listed odds of 1.45 for Butvilas versus 2.51 for Ilagan, and Tennis Temple’s pre-match split of 74.6% for Butvilas against 25.4% for Ilagan.[5][7]

The historical frame is a small sample but relevant: Ilagan beat Butvilas 6-3, 6-4 in their only prior meeting in Tyler in June 2026, giving him the head-to-head edge despite broader market respect for Butvilas’ longer-term consistency.[2][5][11] That makes the current contract especially sensitive to whether traders are reading the matchup as a straightforward repeat of the earlier result or as a spot where recency is being outweighed by ranking and tour-level pricing. For comparison, the key question in cross-platform terms is whether prediction-market pricing is being anchored to settlement risk rather than match strength, because the 0% print is materially out of line with both the head-to-head record and the external odds stack.[2][7]

For traders, the main catalysts are administrative rather than tactical: confirmation that the Lexington match is completed, whether there is any suspension or abandonment, and whether either player advances on retirement or walkover terms before the market’s 7-day settlement cutoff.[1][7] Sofascore’s live listing shows the contest as having been scheduled for 9 August 2026 at 17:00, while the market description ties settlement to a win, a cancellation, or a delay beyond seven days, so any scoreline update or official status change is the immediate driver of resolution risk.[1][7] If the match is unfinished but one player is awarded advancement, that outcome should still map to the named winner rather than a tied settlement, making official tournament status more important than raw point score.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.