Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon faces Timofey Skatov in the opening round of the 2026 Swiss Open Gstaad, with the match scheduled for 12:00 pm local time on Court 1 in Switzerland. The prediction market currently implies a 71% probability that Collignon advances, a figure that aligns closely with sportsbook favourites but diverges slightly from some analyst tips suggesting a 2-0 victory for the Belgian[1][2]. While the crowd leans heavily toward Collignon, the head-to-head record shows a balanced rivalry with both players holding two wins on grass, indicating the outcome remains less certain than the implied probability suggests[5].

Historical data from their 2025 Bonn Challenger semi-final, where Collignon defeated Skatov in three sets, provides a precedent for his ability to overcome the Kazakh on hard courts, though grass surfaces introduce different variables[4]. Comparable first-round matches at Gstaad often see higher-ranked players prevail, yet the 4-3 overall H2H advantage for Skatov on grass complicates the narrative of a straightforward win for Collignon[5]. Traders should note that prediction-market odds often lag behind live sportsbook adjustments, creating potential value if the match dynamics shift early.

Key catalysts include the official start time confirmation and any pre-match injury reports, as both players have shown vulnerability in recent tournaments[2]. The settlement window extends until 20 July 2026, allowing for potential delays, but traders must monitor real-time updates from ATP Tour sources for any cancellations or weather disruptions that could trigger the 50-50 resolution clause[9]. Recent preview analysis from The Stats Zone reinforces Collignon’s quality advantage, yet the tight H2H split suggests the 71% implied probability may be slightly inflated relative to the actual risk[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.