Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of roehampton 2: charles broom vs george loffhagen. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Charles Broom and George Loffhagen in the Roehampton 2, originally scheduled for August 29, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
We track Roehampton 2: Charles Broom vs George Loffhagen across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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