Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Game Spread +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Match O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones | 37% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 10% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 51% probability to phan thiet 3: florent bax vs maximus jones. This market refers to the tennis match between Florent Bax and Maximus Jones in the Phan Thiet 3, originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Florent Bax' i…
Methodology
We track Phan Thiet 3: Florent Bax vs Maximus Jones across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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