National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik

Platform comparison

Market context

Terence Atmane v Jakub Mensik at the National Bank Open is priced as a clear Mensik-favoured match in the sportsbook market, while the prediction market contract has been sitting at **0% YES**, which is far below the raw betting consensus. Recent bookmaker screens show Mensik around **1.40–1.45** in decimal terms, with Atmane generally **2.60–3.02**, equivalent to an implied Mensik win chance in the mid-60s to high-70s before margin, while Atmane is roughly in the low-30s.[2][3][9] Analyst-style projections line up with that direction: Tennis Tonic’s preview picked Mensik in straight sets, and Dimers’ model put Mensik around **61.5%–64%** to win.[1][9][18]

The historical read here is straightforward: in ATP Masters 1000 matches, outright prices tend to cluster around the pre-match rating gap unless a late injury, scheduling issue or retirement risk changes the setup. This contract’s **0% YES** is therefore materially different from both sportsbook and model pricing, and looks more like a thin or stale prediction-market quote than a true consensus on the tennis outcome.[2][4][9] For comparison, other market screens also had Mensik heavily favoured, including Kalshi game-spread pricing that still left his win-related side well supported relative to Atmane’s.[17]

Traders should watch for late tournament updates on court assignment, start time, and any withdrawal or walkover language, because the settlement rules depend on whether the match is actually played and completed within the window. Flashscore listed the match for **07/08/2026 15:00**, while Tennis.com and Yahoo Sports both tracked it as a National Bank Open round-three meeting in Montréal, so any rescheduling would matter quickly for a contract that can flip to **50-50** if the match is not played or is left unresolved past the delay threshold.[6][7][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensik across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.