Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to cincinnati open, qualification: luca van assche vs dusan lajovic. This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Dusan Lajovic in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page reviews Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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