S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market asks whether the S&P 500 closes higher on Monday, 13 July 2026, than it did on the prior trading day, which is Friday, 10 July. With the index closing at 7,575.39 on that Friday, the contract resolves to “Up” only if Monday’s close exceeds that level. The crowd-implied probability of an upward move sits at just 8%, suggesting traders expect a decline or flat close despite the recent 0.42% daily gain [5][7].

Historically, single-day Monday reversals after a Friday close near the 52-week high of 7,620.90 are uncommon but not rare; in the past two years, roughly 12% of Mondays following a Friday close within 1% of the high ended lower [3][6]. The current 8% odds imply a slightly more bearish stance than the historical average, potentially reflecting heightened sensitivity to upcoming data rather than a structural shift in trend.

Traders should monitor the release of the US Consumer Price Index for June, scheduled for Wednesday, 16 July, which often triggers pre-announcement positioning in equity futures [2]. Additionally, any commentary from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the July 29–30 policy meeting could influence risk appetite, as recent volatility has correlated with shifts in rate expectations [5]. S&P 500 futures, currently trading near 7,425, may offer a leading signal if they break below key support before Monday’s close [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.