Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 Winner | 88% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 49% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang | 46% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 11% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Kayla Day vs Shuai Zhang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to pan pacific open, qualification: kayla day vs shuai zhang. This market refers to the tennis match between Kayla Day and Shuai Zhang in the Pan Pacific Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to '…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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