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Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun 71% O/U 172.5 56% Spread -5.5 55% O/U 174.5 51% Volume: $96K Liquidity: $172K Closes: 7 Aug 2026
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Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 71% 29% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 71% 29% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun71%
O/U 172.556%
Spread -5.555%
O/U 174.551%
Spread -6.549%
Kelsey Plum: Points O/U 17.547%
Diamond Miller: Rebounds O/U 2.534%
Leïla Lacan: Assists O/U 4.534%
Leïla Lacan: Points O/U 12.533%
Diamond Miller: Points O/U 11.532%
Kelsey Plum: Rebounds O/U 1.532%
Kahleah Copper: Assists O/U 1.532%
DeWanna Bonner: Points O/U 10.530%
DeWanna Bonner: Rebounds O/U 6.530%
Kelsey Plum: Assists O/U 4.528%
Kahleah Copper: Points O/U 20.527%
Kelsey Plum: Points O/U 18.526%
Alyssa Thomas: Assists O/U 8.525%
Alyssa Thomas: Points O/U 15.524%
Leïla Lacan: Rebounds O/U 2.523%
Kahleah Copper: Rebounds O/U 3.522%
Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 8.520%

Market context

The Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun prediction market currently prices this outcome at 71% YES. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 7 at 7:30PM ET: If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury". If the Connecticut Sun win, the market will resolve to "Connec…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun at 71% for "Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun".

Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun 71% Other 29%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $96K.

Methodology

We track Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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