Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs MIBR (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs MIBR (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs MIBR (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs MIBR (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs MIBR (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-8.5) vs MIBR (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs MIBR (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs MIBR (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-7.5) vs NRG (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs NRG (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-4.5) vs NRG (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-7.5) vs NRG (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-6.5) vs NRG (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-5.5) vs NRG (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-8.5) vs NRG (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-9.5) vs MIBR (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Valorant: NRG vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Valorant match between NRG and MIBR in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 18 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "NRG" if NRG win the m…
Methodology
We track Valorant: NRG vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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