Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-5.5) vs FURIA Esports (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Winner | 89% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 89% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Evil Geniuses (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: EG (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 12% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-4.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: furia esports vs evil geniuses (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 play-in stands at 90% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket round 3 match between FURIA Esports and Evil Geniuses in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-In, initially scheduled for August 21, 2026 …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT… on Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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