Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 96% |
| Netherlands O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| Netherlands O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| O/U 2.5 | 61% |
| Serbia O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| Both Teams to Score | 53% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Serbia 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Netherlands 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Serbia 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Serbia 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| 2nd Half O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| Netherlands (-1.5) | 46% |
| Serbia O/U 4.5 | 46% |
| Netherlands (-5.5) | 45% |
| Serbia (-5.5) | 44% |
| Serbia (-4.5) | 43% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Netherlands O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Serbia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Netherlands 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Serbia O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Serbia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 31% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 27% |
| Netherlands (-2.5) | 25% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Serbia O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Serbia (-3.5) | 20% |
| Netherlands O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Serbia 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 19% |
| Serbia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| 1st Half O/U 4.5 | 18% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Netherlands (-3.5) | 12% |
| O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Serbia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| Netherlands O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Serbia O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Netherlands (-4.5) | 4% |
| O/U 6.5 | 4% |
| Serbia (-1.5) | 3% |
| Netherlands O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Serbia (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Serbia O/U 3.5 | 1% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Serbia vs. Netherlands - More Markets. More markets for the UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for September 27 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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