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UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)

How the prediction-market book is pricing "UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

O/U 0.5 Rounds 72% O/U 1.5 Rounds 72% O/U 2.5 Rounds 67% Fight won by KO/TKO? 63% Volume: $115K Liquidity: $112K Closes: 19 Jul 2026
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UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 72% 28% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 72% 28% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.5 Rounds72%
O/U 1.5 Rounds72%
O/U 2.5 Rounds67%
Fight won by KO/TKO?63%
O/U 3.5 Rounds63%
Du Plessis to win by KO/TKO?54%
Fight to Go the Distance?45%
O/U 4.5 Rounds40%
Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis31%
Fight won by submission?27%
Usman to win by KO/TKO?12%

Market context

The UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) prediction market currently prices this outcome at 72% YES. This market will resolve to "Kamaru Usman" if Kamaru Usman is officially declared the winner of the fight against Dricus Du Plessis at UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, scheduled for July 18, 202…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 0.5 Rounds at 72% for "UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)".

O/U 0.5 Rounds 72% Other 28%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $115K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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