What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

UFC Fight Night: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson R… | Kalshi Vs Polymarket 2026

Name: UFC Fight Night: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas (Flyweight, Main Card)
Start: 2026-08-21T22:00:16.000Z
End: 2026-08-30T03:59:59.999Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	View on Polymarket →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas	100%
Fight won by KO/TKO?	100%
Hasan to win by KO/TKO?	100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds	100%
Fight to Go the Distance?	0%
Rojas to win by KO/TKO?	0%
Fight won by submission?	0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds	0%
O/U 2.5 Rounds	0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for UFC Fight Night: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas (Flyweight, Main Card). This market will resolve to "Bilal Hasan" if Bilal Hasan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nilson Rojas at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas at 100% for "UFC Fight Night: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas (Flyweight, Main Card)".

Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $238K.

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas (Flyweight, Main Card) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?: A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?: Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?: Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?: On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?: The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporterand

Chris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

Trade UFC Fight Night: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas (Flywe… on Kalshi vs Polymarket

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UFC Fight Night: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas (Flyweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade UFC Fight Night: Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas (Flywe… on Kalshi vs Polymarket

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