Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| O/U 1.5 | 94% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| FC Barcelona O/U 0.5 | 89% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 87% |
| O/U 2.5 | 82% |
| Both Teams to Score | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| O/U 3.5 | 65% |
| FC Barcelona O/U 1.5 | 65% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| FC Barcelona 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| FC Barcelona 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 55% |
| FC Barcelona 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| FC Barcelona 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Barcelona 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 49% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| FC Barcelona 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| 2nd Half O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 39% |
| FC Barcelona O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 2.5 | 37% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 5.5 | 28% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| FC Barcelona 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | 23% |
| FC Barcelona (-1.5) | 23% |
| 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| FC Barcelona O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| O/U 6.5 | 16% |
| FC Barcelona (-2.5) | 12% |
| 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| 1st Half O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) | 11% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| FC Barcelona 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| FC Barcelona O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC (-3.5) | 5% |
| FC Barcelona (-3.5) | 5% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC (-4.5) | 3% |
| FC Barcelona (-4.5) | 3% |
| FC Barcelona (-5.5) | 3% |
| O/U 8.5 | 3% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC (-5.5) | 2% |
| FC Barcelona O/U 5.5 | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 99% probability to paris saint-germain fc vs. fc barcelona - more markets. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for October 20 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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