Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| AEK O/U 0.5 | 85% |
| Team to Advance | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| AEK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 65% |
| AEK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| AEK O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Both Teams to Score | 43% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| AEK (-1.5) | 39% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| AEK O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| AEK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 26% |
| O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 21% |
| AEK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| AEK (-2.5) | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 15% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5) | 3% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 3% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, aek vs. pfk levski sofia - more markets stands at 92% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for August 26 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia - More Markets on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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