Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Warriors O/U 108.5 | 84% |
| Warriors O/U 109.5 | 83% |
| O/U 221.5 | 81% |
| Warriors O/U 110.5 | 78% |
| Grizzlies O/U 107.5 | 78% |
| O/U 224.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 74% |
| Warriors O/U 113.5 | 72% |
| O/U 227.5 | 70% |
| Warriors O/U 114.5 | 70% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 57.5 | 69% |
| Warriors O/U 115.5 | 67% |
| Grizzlies O/U 111.5 | 67% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 14.5 | 65% |
| O/U 230.5 | 64% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 64% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 56.5 | 64% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 63% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 59.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| O/U 232.5 | 60% |
| O/U 233.5 | 57% |
| Warriors O/U 118.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 234.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Warriors O/U 119.5 | 55% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 58.5 | 55% |
| O/U 235.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| O/U 236.5 | 51% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 61.5 | 51% |
| Grizzlies O/U 116.5 | 51% |
| Warriors O/U 120.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gui Santos: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephen Curry: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ty Jerome: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Al Horford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Zach Edey: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 106.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies O/U 126.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Warriors 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Grizzlies 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylen Wells: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| O/U 237.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| 4Q O/U 58.5 | 48% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| O/U 238.5 | 46% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Jaylen Wells: Assists O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Grizzlies O/U 117.5 | 46% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 44% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 43% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 60.5 | 43% |
| O/U 240.5 | 42% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 41% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 4.5 | 41% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| Warriors O/U 123.5 | 41% |
| Spread -7.5 | 40% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 4.5 | 40% |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 39% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 39% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 39% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 38% |
| Warriors O/U 124.5 | 38% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Assists O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 37% |
| O/U 243.5 | 36% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Warriors O/U 125.5 | 36% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 39.5 | 35% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 62.5 | 35% |
| Grizzlies O/U 121.5 | 35% |
| Spread -9.5 | 34% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| Warriors 1H O/U 65.5 | 33% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 31% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| O/U 246.5 | 29% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 24.5 | 29% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 21.5 | 28% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Zach Edey: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Grizzlies 1H O/U 64.5 | 27% |
| Spread -12.5 | 26% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 26% |
| Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| O/U 249.5 | 25% |
| Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Warriors O/U 128.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 11.5 | 24% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Warriors O/U 129.5 | 24% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Jerami Grant: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Warriors O/U 130.5 | 22% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 19% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 29.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 18% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -9.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 16% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 5.5 | 16% |
| Spread -18.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 34.5 | 14% |
| Ty Jerome: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 13% |
| Al Horford: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Zach Edey: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 12% |
| Draymond Green: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Cameron Boozer: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: Points O/U 34.5 | 11% |
| Ty Jerome: Points O/U 29.5 | 11% |
| Cameron Boozer: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Stephen Curry: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 11% |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 19.5 | 9% |
| Cameron Boozer: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Draymond Green: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Jerami Grant: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Zach Edey: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Draymond Green: Points O/U 14.5 | 7% |
| Al Horford: Points O/U 14.5 | 6% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 84% probability to grizzlies vs. warriors. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 10:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Warriors win, the market will resolve to "Warriors". If the game …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $531K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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