Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 224.5 | 77% |
| O/U 227.5 | 72% |
| O/U 230.5 | 66% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 14.5 | 61% |
| O/U 233.5 | 60% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| O/U 235.5 | 55% |
| O/U 236.5 | 54% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| O/U 237.5 | 52% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 238.5 | 49% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 49% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 29.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 34.5 | 46% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 29.5 | 46% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 240.5 | 44% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| O/U 241.5 | 42% |
| Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 39% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| O/U 243.5 | 38% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 35% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 8.5 | 35% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| Tyler Herro: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 34% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| O/U 246.5 | 32% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5 | 32% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 13.5 | 32% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| Myles Turner: Points O/U 11.5 | 30% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 39.5 | 28% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| O/U 249.5 | 27% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Kyle Kuzma: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 34.5 | 27% |
| Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| Overtime? | 24% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| O/U 252.5 | 22% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Caleb Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 19% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Tyler Herro: Points O/U 29.5 | 19% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Spread -12.5 | 17% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Caleb Wilson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Josh Giddey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Tyler Herro: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 15% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Caleb Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Jalen Smith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Spread -15.5 | 13% |
| Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5 | 13% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Caleb Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Ryan Rollins: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Jalen Smith: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Norman Powell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Norman Powell: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Matas Buzelis: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Ryan Rollins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Ryan Rollins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 77% probability to bulls vs. bucks. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 4:00PM ET: If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game is postponed, t…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $109K.
Methodology
We track Bulls vs. Bucks across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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