Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 209.5 | 90% |
| O/U 211.5 | 88% |
| O/U 213.5 | 86% |
| O/U 215.5 | 81% |
| Spread -2.5 | 79% |
| O/U 217.5 | 78% |
| Spread -4.5 | 74% |
| O/U 219.5 | 74% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| O/U 221.5 | 71% |
| O/U 223.5 | 68% |
| Spread -6.5 | 68% |
| Spread -7.5 | 64% |
| O/U 225.5 | 64% |
| Spread -8.5 | 62% |
| O/U 226.5 | 62% |
| O/U 227.5 | 60% |
| Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| O/U 229.5 | 55% |
| Spread -11.5 | 51% |
| O/U 231.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| O/U 232.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 49% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| Keon Ellis: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 49% |
| Spread -12.5 | 48% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 34.5 | 48% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 47% |
| O/U 233.5 | 46% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 45% |
| Spread -13.5 | 44% |
| O/U 234.5 | 44% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 44% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 43% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Assists O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| O/U 235.5 | 41% |
| Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 34.5 | 41% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 9.5 | 41% |
| O/U 236.5 | 40% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 39.5 | 40% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 39.5 | 40% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 44.5 | 40% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 40% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -15.5 | 38% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| O/U 237.5 | 37% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 14.5 | 37% |
| Spread -16.5 | 36% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 35% |
| O/U 239.5 | 34% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| O/U 240.5 | 32% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 9.5 | 32% |
| Spread -18.5 | 31% |
| James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5 | 31% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 24.5 | 31% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 31% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| O/U 242.5 | 30% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 | 28% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 17.5 | 28% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 25% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 25% |
| Julius Randle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 245.5 | 24% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 14.5 | 23% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 9.5 | 23% |
| Spread -21.5 | 22% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5 | 22% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 29.5 | 21% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 21% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 21% |
| O/U 248.5 | 20% |
| Spread -22.5 | 20% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 29.5 | 20% |
| Nets vs. Cavaliers | 18% |
| Spread -24.5 | 17% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 24.5 | 17% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 14.5 | 16% |
| O/U 251.5 | 15% |
| Spread -1.5 | 15% |
| Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 15% |
| Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 15% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -26.5 | 13% |
| James Harden: Points O/U 24.5 | 13% |
| Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 34.5 | 12% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 29.5 | 12% |
| Evan Mobley: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Peyton Watson: Points O/U 19.5 | 11% |
| Sam Merrill: Points O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Egor Demin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Spread -28.5 | 10% |
| Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| Julius Randle: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Jaylon Tyson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| James Harden: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Egor Demin: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Spread -30.5 | 7% |
| Spread -32.5 | 7% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Spread -9.5 | 6% |
| Spread -34.5 | 5% |
| Spread -38.5 | 5% |
| Spread -11.5 | 3% |
| Spread -13.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -36.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 2% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, nets vs. cavaliers stands at 90% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 7:30PM ET: If the Nets win, the market will resolve to "Nets". If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". I…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $76K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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