Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming MLB game between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, scheduled for 30 June at 7:05PM ET, pits a Tigers side with a 36–49 record against Yankees, who hold a 48–36 mark and lead the AL East. The prediction market currently implies a 93% probability that the Tigers will win, a figure that starkly diverges from sportsbook moneylines where the Yankees are favoured at -121 and public betting shows only 19% backing the Tigers despite 81% of the money going to them[1][4]. This divergence mirrors historical cases where sharp money heavily contradicts public sentiment, often signalling that the market price is misaligned with the true outcome probability, as seen when serious bettors favour one side while casual fans back another[4].

Traders should monitor the Yankees’ recent three-game skid and the Tigers’ four consecutive wins, which have generated momentum and a solid 22–16 home record, including a 5–3 victory over New York on 22 June[2]. Key catalysts include the Yankees’ poor 13–21 against-the-spread record in games following a loss and the Tigers’ strong 12–7 ATS performance as road underdogs, both of which could influence the final result[6]. Analyst Tommy Totals suggests Cam Schlitter may shut Detroit down, predicting a low-scoring 2–1 or 3–1 game, yet notes the Yankees’ current form is unimpressive, creating uncertainty around the 93% implied probability[5]. The settlement window ends 2026-07-07T23:05:00Z, with the market remaining open if postponed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.