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Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 80% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 69% O/U 8.5 61% Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals 60% Volume: $141K Liquidity: $2.4M Closes: 19 Aug 2026
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Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 80% 20% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 80% 20% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.580%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.569%
O/U 8.561%
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals60%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.557%
NRFI52%
O/U 9.550%
Spread -1.549%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.545%
O/U 10.543%
Spread -2.538%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.537%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.534%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.526%
Spread -1.526%
Spread -2.517%
Extra Innings9%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 80% probability to chicago cubs vs. washington nationals. In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals, scheduled for August 12 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This ma…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 80% for "Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 80% Other 20%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $141K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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