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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals

Five-platform snapshot of "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 81% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 68% O/U 8.5 56% 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 55% Volume: $86K Liquidity: $777K Closes: 1 Aug 2026
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 81% 19% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 81% 19% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.581%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.568%
O/U 8.556%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.555%
NRFI53%
O/U 9.546%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.544%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals42%
Spread -1.541%
O/U 10.539%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.538%
Spread -1.533%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.531%
Spread -2.531%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.523%
Spread -2.523%
Extra Innings6%

Market context

The Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals prediction market currently prices this outcome at 81% YES. In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 25 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 81% for "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 81% Other 19%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $86K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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