Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| Deportivo Alavés O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 63% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score | 49% |
| Deportivo Alavés 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Deportivo Alavés 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 35% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Deportivo Alavés O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 25% |
| O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) | 19% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 16% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Deportivo Alavés 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| Deportivo Alavés (-1.5) | 10% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Deportivo Alavés O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-2.5) | 7% |
| Deportivo Alavés 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 7% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Deportivo Alavés (-2.5) | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 90% probability to rayo vallecano de madrid vs. deportivo alavés - more markets. More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for August 20 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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