Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya | 49% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Game Spread +/-3.5 | 25% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open wta: xinyu wang vs anna kalinskaya. This market refers to the tennis match between Xinyu Wang and Anna Kalinskaya in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Xinyu Wang' if…
Methodology
This page reviews US Open WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Anna Kalinskaya across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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