Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova | 98% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Set 2 Winner | 95% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 95% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Match O/U 21.5 | 90% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 90% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Match O/U 22.5 | 60% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Game Spread +/-5.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 10% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open wta: naomi osaka vs anastasia zakharova stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Anastasia Zakharova in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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