Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet Game Spread +/-3.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Carole Monnet. This market refers to the tennis match between Anouk Koevermans and Carole Monnet in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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