Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Game Spread +/-4.5 | 50% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela | 16% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Antalya 4: Lucia Bronzetti vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, antalya 4: lucia bronzetti vs irene burillo escorihuela stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Lucia Bronzetti and Irene Burillo Escorihuela in the Antalya 4, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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