Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu Game Spread +/-6.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lin Zhu. This market refers to the tennis match between Angela Fita Boluda and Lin Zhu in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'An…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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