Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Game Spread +/-4.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification wta: bianca andreescu vs veronika podrez. This market refers to the tennis match between Bianca Andreescu and Veronika Podrez in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
We track US Open, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Veronika Podrez across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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