Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Vitality (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 61% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) | 60% |
| Map 2 Winner | 55% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Match Winner | 36% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) | 35% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-5.5) vs Team Vitality (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-4.5) vs Team Vitality (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: team vitality vs natus vincere (bo3) - vct emea group alpha. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Vitality and Natus Vincere in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 17 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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