Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 74% |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) | 49% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 49% |
| Match Winner | 28% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 25% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs G2 Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: nongshim redforce vs g2 esports (bo3) - esports world cup group c. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between Nongshim RedForce and G2 Esports in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 7 at 9:45AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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