Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 97% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 73% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 60% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 48% |
| Match Winner | 40% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 23% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Winner | 2% |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: gentle mates vs team vitality (bo3) - vct emea group alpha stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Gentle Mates and Team Vitality in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 29 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT … on Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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