Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Atert Bissen O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KÍ O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KÍ O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Atert Bissen 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KÍ 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KÍ 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Atert Bissen (-1.5) | 0% |
| KÍ (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Atert Bissen (-2.5) | 0% |
| KÍ (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Atert Bissen O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Atert Bissen O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KÍ O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Atert Bissen 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| KÍ 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Atert Bissen 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Atert Bissen 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| KÍ 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
The UEFA Champions League qualification match between FC Atert Bissen and KÍ Klaksvík concluded on 7 July 2026 with KÍ winning 2–1, a result that has already settled the primary outcome of the fixture[1][2]. The prediction market titled “More Markets” for this game carries a current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES, reflecting the fact that the match has finished and no unresolved secondary conditions remain active. In sports prediction markets, contracts tied to completed events with known outcomes typically collapse to zero or one immediately post-settlement, depending on whether the condition was met.
Historically, similar “more markets” contracts for finished Champions League qualifiers have shown near-zero implied probabilities when the underlying event’s outcome is already confirmed and no pending ancillary bets (such as total goals or player stats) are unresolved. Comparable cases from past UEFA qualification rounds show that once the final score is recorded and official, secondary markets either settle instantly or become illiquid, with traders exiting positions as the settlement window approaches its end date[3].
Traders should monitor official UEFA settlement announcements and any late corrections to match statistics, though these are unlikely given the match occurred over a week ago. No new catalysts such as lineup changes, injury reports, or schedule shifts apply, as the game is complete. Recent match data from SoccerPunter and YS Scores confirms the 2–1 result with no disputed events, reinforcing the market’s 0% probability as accurate[1][2]. With the settlement window ending on 15 July 2026, the contract is effectively closed.
Methodology
We track FC Atert Bissen vs. KÍ - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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