Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Vasteraas SK (-1.5) | 84% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 1.5 | 73% |
| Vasteraas SK O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 0.5 | 59% |
| O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Orgryte IS (-2.5) | 50% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vasteraas SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vasteraas SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Orgryte IS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Orgryte IS (-1.5) | 34% |
| Vasteraas SK (-2.5) | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score | 27% |
| O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Orgryte IS O/U 1.5 | 4% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Orgryte IS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Västerås SK will host Orgryte IS in the Swedish Allsvenskan on 24 July 2026 at 13:00 ET. The prediction market currently reflects an 84% probability that additional markets will be offered for this fixture, suggesting strong confidence among traders that sportsbooks or platforms will expand their offering beyond standard match-result and goal-total contracts.
Historical precedent shows that Allsvenskan fixtures between mid-table and lower-ranked sides typically attract supplementary markets when one club carries significant betting volume or media interest. Västerås and Orgryte have generated modest but consistent liquidity in prior seasons; the 84% reading aligns with patterns observed in comparable Nordic league matches where secondary markets (first-goal scorer, corner counts, card totals) materialise within 48 hours of fixture confirmation. Conversely, fixtures involving top-four clubs or derbies routinely see expanded offerings from day one, suggesting the current probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than near-certainty.
Traders should monitor Allsvenskan's official fixture announcements and sportsbook promotional calendars through mid-July. Recent coverage from Swedish sports outlets and betting platforms' market-release schedules will signal whether either club has drawn special promotional attention. Injury announcements affecting key players, particularly for Västerås, could influence whether operators deem the match sufficiently compelling to justify additional market development costs. The settlement window closes at 17:00 ET on match day, leaving a narrow window for late-stage market additions after team sheets are confirmed but before kick-off.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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