AIK vs. Orgryte IS - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

AIK meet Örgryte IS in an Allsvenskan fixture with the crowd-implied price on the “more markets” contract sitting at just **1% Yes**, which is far below the main match-result models and bookmaker views. Across the public prediction pages, AIK are generally framed as the clear favourite: published probabilities cluster around **53% to 68%** for an AIK win, while one Polymarket listing cites trader consensus at **66.5%** for AIK to win outright.[1][2][3][4][13] That gap suggests the contract is not pricing the standard home-win angle, but a narrower conditional market or an ancillary outcome that traders see as highly unlikely relative to the base match narrative.

Comparables point the same way: AIK are usually projected to control the game rather than leave an open, high-variance state. Several models lean to a **2-0** or **2-1** home win, with over-2.5 goals estimates ranging from roughly **47% to 65%**, and both-teams-to-score views also split by model.[1][4][5][7][8][16] For a 1% contract to look fair, the market would need a very specific sequence beyond the consensus read on the match itself, which is why the discrepancy versus sportsbook-style win lines is so pronounced.[3][13]

The main catalysts are lineup and squad announcements, late injury news, and any change to the scheduled kick-off or team selection closer to the 10:30 AM ET start.[16] Because the contract settles at **2026-08-02T14:30:00Z**, only information released before then can affect resolution, so traders typically watch confirmed starting XIs, substitutions of key attackers or defenders, and any pre-match news that shifts expectations of game state. Recent preview coverage has already leaned towards an AIK win and a relatively controlled scoreline, so any late team-news surprise would matter more than broad form indicators.[1][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track AIK vs. Orgryte IS - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.