Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Celtic FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Celtic FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Celtic FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Dundee FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Celtic FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Dundee FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Celtic FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Celtic FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Celtic FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Celtic FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Celtic FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Dundee FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Celtic host Dundee in a Scottish Premiership fixture that, on the available cross-platform read, remains priced as a near-certainty for the home side despite the prediction market sitting at **0% YES**. That disconnect is stark against historical comparables: Celtic’s head-to-head dominance is overwhelming across recent samples, with 27 wins in the previous 33 meetings reported by FootyStats and 29 wins to Dundee’s 1 on FotMob, while Sky Sports notes Celtic had a long unbeaten run in the fixture before Dundee’s surprise 2-0 win at Dens Park in 2025.[7][16][5] The recent upset matters for framing, but it has not overturned the broader market consensus that Celtic are the structurally stronger side in this matchup.[5][8]
For traders, the key catalysts are line-ups, late team news and whether any rotation appears before or after the league’s opening-round schedule, because those factors can move “more markets” such as goals, cards and first-scorer style contracts faster than the match winner itself. Sky Sports’ recent form pages show Celtic have alternated between high-control home performances and a couple of less stable away results, while Dundee’s recent league results have been more variable and include heavier defensive concessions, which is the kind of profile sportsbook totals often price more aggressively than outright moneyline markets.[11][8] On a comparison basis, any meaningful divergence is more likely to show up in ancillary pricing — for example on total goals or both teams to score — than in the straightforward view of Celtic as favourites, so a 0% market reading looks more like a contract-specific anomaly than a broad analyst consensus mismatch.[6][15]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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