IK Start vs. Fredrikstad FK

Platform comparison

Market context

IK Start host Fredrikstad FK in the Norway Eliteserien, and the market’s 0% YES price is far below what the football data imply. Recent head-to-head records lean towards Fredrikstad: they won 2-1 in Kristiansand on 29 May 2026, and across the last 11 meetings Fredrikstad have 5 wins to Start’s 2, with 4 draws[2][1]. That history is not overwhelming, but it does support Fredrikstad as the stronger side in the fixture. Comparator sites also show the same broad shape, with Fredrikstad ahead on wins and goals in the series, which makes a zero-implied probability look like a pricing anomaly rather than a reflection of match balance[3][13].

For traders, the key catalysts are team news and late market repricing around line-ups, because this is the point where prediction markets and sportsbook prices can diverge most sharply. Start came into the match off a poor run, including a 3-0 home defeat to Viking, while Fredrikstad had just beaten Sandefjord 1-0 before their own heavier away losses, so recent form is mixed and likely to move quickly if either side confirms changes in attack or defence[16][9]. The most meaningful cross-platform check is whether sportsbooks keep Fredrikstad as the favourite; if they do, a 0% YES contract on Start would remain an outlier against both head-to-head history and typical football pricing, whereas any late injury or rotation news could justify a sharp correction[16][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.