Falcons vs. Colts

Platform comparison

Market context

The Falcons met the Colts in a preseason game at Lucas Oil Stadium on 22 August, with the market’s crowd-implied probability sitting at 100% yes despite the match already being completed. That makes the contract look fully resolved in practical terms, but the live comparison point before kick-off was straightforward: sportsbooks made Indianapolis a modest home favourite, while prediction-market pricing was still more uncertain than the market headline suggested. ESPN’s pre-game odds page and market books such as Covers and Action Network had the Colts around 3.5 to 4.5 points ahead, with moneyline prices implying roughly a 60-65% chance of an Indianapolis win rather than certainty.[1][7][8]

The useful frame for reading a perfect yes price is that preseason markets can move sharply on team-news rather than depth-chart reputation. Atlanta had already signalled it would not use its starters in the game, and local reports said the focus was on joint practices and controlled snaps rather than full-strength game plans.[5][6] That kind of setup usually narrows the gap between analyst picks and book numbers, because line moves depend more on who is active, whether the game remains scheduled for 1:00pm ET, and whether there are any late changes to resting decisions than on the teams’ long-run strength.[4][12] In this case, the final scoreline also matters for comparison: Atlanta won 34-6, so any pre-game view that treated Indianapolis as the more likely winner would have been out of step with the result.[3][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.