Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Charlotte FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Charlotte FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Charlotte FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Charlotte FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Charlotte FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Charlotte FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| Charlotte FC (-1.5) | 85% |
| Charlotte FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 66% |
| O/U 4.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Charlotte FC (-2.5) | 37% |
| Toronto FC O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Toronto FC O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| Toronto FC (-1.5) | 2% |
| Toronto FC (-2.5) | 2% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Toronto FC will host Charlotte FC in Major League Soccer on 19 August at 19:30 ET. The prediction market currently prices the likelihood of additional markets opening for this fixture at 2%, a substantial discount to typical sportsbook behaviour for mid-season MLS matches. Most regulated books offer multiple prop markets on regular-season games, particularly those involving established franchises. The settlement window closes at 23:30 ET on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-kick-off for new markets to be created and resolved.
Historical precedent suggests MLS matches of this profile—neither playoff nor championship fixtures—routinely attract secondary market offerings within hours of kickoff. Kalshi and Polymarket have shown divergent appetites for MLS-specific contracts; Kalshi's sports catalogue emphasises major leagues and playoff scenarios, whilst Polymarket's broader sports coverage occasionally captures regular-season depth markets. The 2% implied probability reflects either low platform appetite for this particular fixture or genuine uncertainty about whether additional markets will materialise before the settlement deadline.
Traders should monitor whether either Toronto or Charlotte announce significant injury news in the 48 hours before kickoff, as such developments sometimes trigger sportsbook market expansion. Platform activity on existing Toronto–Charlotte contracts—if any—may signal whether market operators expect sufficient trading volume to justify launching additional props. The MLS schedule's mid-August timing coincides with summer roster adjustments, which occasionally influences bookmaker decisions on market breadth.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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