D.C. United SC vs. New England Revolution

Platform comparison

Market context

D.C. United host New England Revolution in an MLS match scheduled for Wednesday 19 August, with the market closing at 23:30 UTC, just before kick-off in Washington. The prediction market at 1% YES is far below the broad sportsbook range, where the home side has generally been priced around +140 to +155 and New England around +165 to +205, with the draw near +240 to +257; that implies a far tighter contest than the contract suggests, and a clear disconnect from market pricing on both sides[1][2][4].

Recent comparables point to a match that should not be treated as a near-lock for either club. Independent models and odds screens have put D.C. United’s win chance in the low-40s, New England in the low-30s, and the draw in the mid-20s, while consensus pickers have leaned to a narrow home edge rather than anything close to a 1% event[4][6][7]. D.C. United’s own preview said they entered unbeaten in six and sitting in the final Eastern Conference play-off place, which supports a home-bias case rather than a one-sided market[12].

The main catalysts are late team news, confirmed line-ups, and any change to the schedule or travel situation before the 7:30 p.m. ET kick-off. The club preview flags D.C. United’s current form and table position, while sportsbook totals around 2.5 goals and both-teams-to-score pricing indicate traders are also watching whether this stays tight or opens up late[1][2][12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.