Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 58% |
| O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers | 53% |
| NRFI | 47% |
| O/U 8.5 | 44% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| O/U 9.5 | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 26% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| Extra Innings | 7% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 72% YES probability for Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers. In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers, scheduled for September 3 at 8:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. This m…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $248K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers on Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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